The spot price for wheat in the UK is currently trading around £180/t, a decrease compared to previous weeks, with the November futures market hitting its lowest point since March last week. Commentators suggest the market is being influenced by a combination of lower domestic production estimates and global market pressures.
The price for feed barley off-farm stands at approximately £160/t. Malting barley, which typically commands a higher price, is valued between £200/t and £210/t, although very little is being traded openly at the moment. These barley prices reflect the current balance of supply and demand, with lower stocks reported but still sufficient to meet domestic needs.
Oilseed rape is currently priced at £360/t, supported by a tight balance in global vegetable oils. However, estimates of a strong soyabean harvest in the US are exerting downward pressure on prices.
In last week’s AHDB harvest report, average yields across the UK were recorded at 7.5 t/ha, which is 7% below the five-year average. Based on AHDB’s Planting and Variety Survey results, a yield of 7.5 t/ha, combined with an estimated area of 1.56 million hectares, suggests a production figure of 11.7 mt.
Wheat Stocks Surge Across the UK
Wheat stocks held by merchants, ports, and co-operatives across the UK, along with on-farm stocks in England and Wales, saw a significant increase by the end of June 2024, reaching levels not seen since June 2016. The AHDB reported that stocks of home-grown wheat held by merchants, ports, and co-operatives in the UK were 44% higher at the end of June 2024 compared to a year earlier, totalling 771,000t. Additionally, they held 237,000t of imported wheat, a 40% increase from June 2023.
Meanwhile, Defra estimates on-farm stocks of home-grown wheat in England and Wales at 1.166 mt by the end of June, 35% higher than the same time last year and 89% above the five-year average. However, with a confidence interval of 206,000t, actual on-farm stocks in England and Wales could range between 960,000 and 1.372 mt.
The end of June marks the conclusion of the 2023/24 marketing season. While on-farm stock data for Scotland and Northern Ireland is not available, the figures suggest significantly higher wheat stocks are likely to be carried into the 2024/25 season, even if on-farm stocks in England and Wales trend toward the lower end of the confidence interval.
Back in May, AHDB forecasted that total UK wheat stocks at the end of the 2023/24 season could reach 3.05 mt, representing a 56% increase from the end of the previous season. Higher wheat stocks could help cushion the impact of the reduced planted area in 2024 and the lower yields resulting from the extremely challenging weather during the growing season. However, it’s worth noting that AHDB expects higher imports to still be necessary in the 2024/25 season.
Decline in Barley and Oat Stocks
While wheat stocks are on the rise, data points to a decline in barley and oat stocks. Merchants, ports, and co-operatives in the UK held 10% less home-grown barley by the end of June 2024 compared to the previous year, and 6% less oats. Defra’s estimates also indicate lower on-farm stocks of home-grown barley and oats in England and Wales, though there’s more uncertainty, particularly for oats, due to large confidence intervals.
Barley stocks are estimated at 146,000t, down 4% from June 2023. For oats, the on-farm stock estimate is 15,900t, a 40% decrease from June 2023.
Comments: Our rules
We want our comments to be a lively and valuable part of our community - a place where readers can debate and engage with the most important local issues. The ability to comment on our stories is a privilege, not a right, however, and that privilege may be withdrawn if it is abused or misused.
Please report any comments that break our rules.
Read the rules here